This, for now, is not a full post, but more a collection of thoughts that I will return to more fully ...
Egypt's revolution was always prone to the dissolution of the rights and representation of man in place of the historically central and powerful military. Though much hope filled the streets of Egypt for a new democratic political system, the shadow of the military remained over this nation.
The military's ousting of Hosni Mubarak and Mohammad Morsi (yes, led by the calls of the people - but ultimately at the hands of the military, especially in the case of Morsi) has ensured the continued centrality of the military.
With the military's historical role in the foundations and character of Egypt it would be unrealistic to think that Egypt could be a strong state without the support of the military - especially after such civil unrest. The violent nature of protests will require a strong arm of control to implement social order. It will require strong political structures and leadership to ensure social cohesion post-revolution, but this can only take place if order is first established. By forcefully imposing curfews; by condemning Days of Rage; by positioning themselves as the tools for change, the military have guaranteed their place in Egyptian society. As they manoeuvre key members of the military or military supporters within political positions they cement their role in post-revolution Egypt.
The military's entrenched position within society is the constant within this time of flux. The possibility of Egypt without a strong military will only come with strong political leadership, a change in mentality and more so, it will only come if the military allow it.
The revolution has always been doomed to military control. I continue to watch in the hope that Egypt's populace will be able to achieve what it wants - even if this ends up being a military dominated state. The important matter is that Egypt will be run how its people want it to be run - if consensus can be found.
I largely agree with your assessment of the role of the army. However I see no short or medium-term hope for the satisfaction of the demands of the Egyptian populace.
ReplyDeleteThe deeply undemocratic way with which the military has acted (especially since other modes of action were available, such as protecting the protesters and demanding with them democratic elections) as well as the fact that it highlighted old and created new divisions, leave me deeply pessimistic.
I also think that it is interesting that Mubarak was released and put on house arrest shortly after the military took over. I think that this and the authoritarian rules the military has imposed illustrate that the road the military has taken is that which leads back to a Mubarak-like regime.